Update 9/19 @ 8:16 PM:
A few nuggets:
Oklahoma Board of Regents have formally authorized president David Boren to pursue any action necessary regarding conference alignment. Nothing surprising there.
Big East will apparently hold Pitt (and presumably Syracuse) to its contract, meaning a June 2014 exit date (earliest). No word on whether Pitt could buy its way out to an earlier date.
Mountain West and Conference-USA are discussing a merger.
Remnants of Big East likely to merge with remnants of Big 12. Both likely can't survive.
Posturing: Info from a few sources reiterates that the Pac 12 will not budge in its insistence that all third-tier revenues from networks be shared among all teams in the conference. OU insists that equal revenue sharing is the only way it would consider staying in Big 12. Not a great deal new there, but it does make one wonder....
Musing: If Texas has presumably been checkmated into an equal revenue sharing agreement no matter where they go, why would they not consider telling OU "okay, equal sharing, we stay if you stay," making OU and UT the kingpins of a dead-on-the-vine conference - a true "AL East" as postulated by Mark Cuban. Reality suggests that members of the presumably enlarged Pac 16 stand to earn as much as $35 million (nearly double) in an expanded conference, which would seemingly make that choice a near no-brainer.
Right now, I still think it's the Gang of Four heading west after some saber-rattling, but we'll see.
Clarification 9/19 @ 1:53PM Oklahoma's Board of Regents meeting now. Alignment (way) down the agenda.
One item I wanted to clarify in the midst of the updates is the issue of OU's "invitation" (or lack thereof) to the Pac 12. I stand behind (several) local media member reports over the last two wweeks (and tweets) that stated quite plainly that Oklahoma has a standing, informal, "unofficial" agreement with the Pac 12 to join their conference with Oklahoma State regardless of Texas' action. I have read nothing to contradict that issue, not even spin from Orangebloods.com.
This agreement, as best I can understand it, was worked out between OU Athletics Director Joe Castiglione and Pac 12 commissioner Larry Scott close to two weeks ago. When the agreement was reached, a local reporter said that "(Castiglione) looked the most relieved he'd been in weeks."
Right now, Texas is the team with no leverage. None. No conference wants the Longhorn Network as it sits. Public posturing indicates Texas is trying to play a measure of hardball with LHN in its Pac 12 negotiations, when in reality playing that kind of poker with a handful of blank cards and no chips gives you very little room to raise the stakes. With no alternatives, Texas either goes independent, or accedes to Pac 12 rules. There's really no middle ground. While Oklahoma is patient and wants to create at least the appearance of unity with Texas, don't think for a second David Boren won't press forward independently in a heartbeat should he decide it is in OU's best interests to do so .
This week stands to be the biggest yet in the shifting tides of conference realignment.
Texas and Oklahoma's respective Boards of Regents will be meeting to empower their presidents to make a deal with whatever conference they deem appropriate. The current speculation is that both are headed to the Pac-12, but hurdles - perhaps significant - remain, chief among them the Longhorn Network and Texas' willingness to shrink it to Pac-12 rules. Another hurdle is whether conference presidents are willing to admit schools with supposedly secondary academic status, although it would seem commissioner Larry Scott should be able to overcome them.
The Pac-12 is showing no signs of budging on its network rules, with the WilmerReport suggesting that Missouri could be on the conference's radar should Texas not come to terms. That would implicitly imperil Tech's move as well.
The SEC is reported quietly looking to jump to 16 teams, reportedly likely to accept West Virginia's upcoming application. The ACC apparently also believes that they are also about to lose Florida State to the SEC as well, meaning a currently unknown 16th team is likely brewing in the SEC's radar.
Acrimony in the Big East came to a head with the sudden departure of Syracuse and Pitt, and now suggestions are that the conference may not survive. Remants of the Big 12 and the Big East may merge to form a new regional conference.
This week should prove to be most interesting. Stay tuned.
Showing posts with label sec. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sec. Show all posts
Monday, September 19, 2011
Monday, September 12, 2011
A&M is now in the SEC: OU, OSU on way to Pac 12
Update 9/13/2011 @ 9:59pm CDT
Probably the last update for the night, but a bit of interesting news coming around. One independent writer is at least suggesting the possibility that "UT to ACC" talk is being orchestrated by Austin, and that contacts with ACC ties have no clue of any such discussions ongoing. As I said, interesting. FWIW.
Update 9/13/2011 @ 6:37pm CDT
Possible big news pending, but still presently VERY iffy: Texas is apparently seriously considering a move to the ACC solely to preserve the Longhorn Network. Again, *very* sketchy and *not* confirmed, but this is at a minimum an increasing possibility. Hang on.
Stay tuned.
Update 9/13/2011 @ 4:53pm CDT
Not a great deal of startling new news, but some tidbits:
Multiple media sources indicate that the Big 12 conference is finished. Oklahoma has made clear its intent to depart the conference in search of "stability," presumably in the Pac 12-14-16, and formal application/acceptance could occur as early as Monday/Tuesday of next week...however...
Oklahoma will allow Texas the opportunity to make an independent decision regarding Pac 12 membership, in the event UT would not want to have the appearance of "following" Oklahoma. The mutual preference is for both schools to move together. While Oklahoma is playing a strong hand, they're working hard not to alienate UT in the process.
Texas is at least contemplating the possibility of joining the ACC. The exact terms of how the Longhorn Network would fit in the ACC are unclear, as that conference also has an equal-sharing rights revenue model. One scenario discussed included all non-football sports going to the ACC, but football remaining independent. Although possible, my opinion is this option is unlikely.
ESPN continues to spin that Texas is acting even now to save the conference, casting them in a noble light, and vilifying Oklahoma. This is, at best, a mischaracterization of reality. Texas has already acknowledged internally that the Big 12 is not viable without Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and will dissolve. Oklahoma made its intentions clear to Texas during meetings last weekend.
Missouri is a possible candidate for the SEC's 14th team, despite Mike Slive's claims that he won't immediately seek a 14th team following A&M's addition.
Most OKC media reports indicate Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will being playing its Pac 14 schedule with the 2012 season. Although there continue to be reports that Texas will explore other options, I still hold that the most likely reality to emerge is OU, Ok State, Texas, and Texas Tech to move to the Pac 16.
More as I hear it.
-David
Things moved very quickly this afternoon, which we have now found out to be a result of high-level weekend meetings, decisions, and the leading edge of what stands to be a tumultuous series of weeks before conference realignment settles.
Here's what we've learned from this weekend.
Over the weekend, a high-level delegation from the University of Texas flew to Norman and engaged in "friendly," high-level talks to determine what criteria, if any, were available to persuade Oklahoma to remain in the Big 12 Conference. Oklahoma, led by David Boren, is reported to have enumerated a specific list of requirements, a list that Texas was not willing to accede. As a result, the talks concluded politely, but unproductively, and the die was cast for Oklahoma to move with its intentions to depart the conference.
Today, the OU Board of Regents is said to have met, and after a briefing of the weekend's talks from President Boren, unanimously voted to move forward with the process of applying for membership in the Pac 12 conference. Press reports indicate that while the process is expected to complete within two weeks, the Board is actually expected to vote formally on the application process by Monday, September 19th, with a possible announcement by the Pac 12 shortly thereafter.
Other press reports stress that the high-level talks between Texas and Oklahoma were friendly, not confrontational or adversarial, with each school recognizing the mutual value their relationship holds to each other. To that end, it is reported that both schools apparently expressed a preference to move to a new conference home together - presumably the Pac 12 - which still implies that a disposition of the Longhorn Network pursuant to Pac 12 network rules remains to be negotiated and resolved. Oklahoma has conveyed to Texas its willingness to allow Texas to assess its own options independently. One observation emerging from these reports is that, while they may differ on the best way to run a conference, Oklahoma and Texas desire to foster their relationship regardless of their conference affiliations.
Nearly coincident with the reported decision of the OU Board of Regents was the announcement by SEC commissioner Mike Slive that his conference had now accepted Texas A&M's membership application, apparently implying that Baylor's threat to sue was no longer an obstacle or was now seen as posturing given Oklahoma's apparent resolve to leave the conference anyway. Slive, for now, is claiming that the SEC plans to add A&M in time for next season and play an unbalanced, 13-member schedule rather than rush to find a 14th member.
How Oklahoma's reported intentions affect the balance of the Big 12 is unclear. What is clear, however, is that only three reasonable scenarios remain at this time:
1. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the Pac 12 alone, with Texas remaining atop a gutted Big 12.
2. OU, OSU, Texas, and Texas Tech move to the Pac 12.
3. OU, OSU, Kansas, and Missouri move to the Pac 12.
The latter two options almost certainly imply the end of the Big 12, as a conference of only five members isn't viable and would offer little in the way of value to prospective new members unless lower-tier progarms were considered, thus diluting the conference's value further. The Big East was reportedly involved in unofficial overtures to Missouri, Baylor, and possibly one or both Kansas schools over the weekend. The ACC is also reported to have expressed interest in both OU and Texas, although that possibility seems remote at this time.
If Texas is unable to work out a deal to allow the Longhorn Network into the confines of the Pac 12, the possibility #3 arises, which would almost certainly force the Longhorns to go independent, or move to the ACC, or possibly even the Big 10. Such moves, at this point, are highly speculative.
This is but the first step in what stands to be a rocky road through realignment. We'll try to keep information consolidated here with as little wild speculation as possible.
Stay tuned!
Probably the last update for the night, but a bit of interesting news coming around. One independent writer is at least suggesting the possibility that "UT to ACC" talk is being orchestrated by Austin, and that contacts with ACC ties have no clue of any such discussions ongoing. As I said, interesting. FWIW.
Update 9/13/2011 @ 6:37pm CDT
Possible big news pending, but still presently VERY iffy: Texas is apparently seriously considering a move to the ACC solely to preserve the Longhorn Network. Again, *very* sketchy and *not* confirmed, but this is at a minimum an increasing possibility. Hang on.
Stay tuned.
Update 9/13/2011 @ 4:53pm CDT
Not a great deal of startling new news, but some tidbits:
Multiple media sources indicate that the Big 12 conference is finished. Oklahoma has made clear its intent to depart the conference in search of "stability," presumably in the Pac 12-14-16, and formal application/acceptance could occur as early as Monday/Tuesday of next week...however...
Oklahoma will allow Texas the opportunity to make an independent decision regarding Pac 12 membership, in the event UT would not want to have the appearance of "following" Oklahoma. The mutual preference is for both schools to move together. While Oklahoma is playing a strong hand, they're working hard not to alienate UT in the process.
Texas is at least contemplating the possibility of joining the ACC. The exact terms of how the Longhorn Network would fit in the ACC are unclear, as that conference also has an equal-sharing rights revenue model. One scenario discussed included all non-football sports going to the ACC, but football remaining independent. Although possible, my opinion is this option is unlikely.
ESPN continues to spin that Texas is acting even now to save the conference, casting them in a noble light, and vilifying Oklahoma. This is, at best, a mischaracterization of reality. Texas has already acknowledged internally that the Big 12 is not viable without Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and will dissolve. Oklahoma made its intentions clear to Texas during meetings last weekend.
Missouri is a possible candidate for the SEC's 14th team, despite Mike Slive's claims that he won't immediately seek a 14th team following A&M's addition.
Most OKC media reports indicate Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will being playing its Pac 14 schedule with the 2012 season. Although there continue to be reports that Texas will explore other options, I still hold that the most likely reality to emerge is OU, Ok State, Texas, and Texas Tech to move to the Pac 16.
More as I hear it.
-David
Things moved very quickly this afternoon, which we have now found out to be a result of high-level weekend meetings, decisions, and the leading edge of what stands to be a tumultuous series of weeks before conference realignment settles.
Here's what we've learned from this weekend.
Over the weekend, a high-level delegation from the University of Texas flew to Norman and engaged in "friendly," high-level talks to determine what criteria, if any, were available to persuade Oklahoma to remain in the Big 12 Conference. Oklahoma, led by David Boren, is reported to have enumerated a specific list of requirements, a list that Texas was not willing to accede. As a result, the talks concluded politely, but unproductively, and the die was cast for Oklahoma to move with its intentions to depart the conference.
Today, the OU Board of Regents is said to have met, and after a briefing of the weekend's talks from President Boren, unanimously voted to move forward with the process of applying for membership in the Pac 12 conference. Press reports indicate that while the process is expected to complete within two weeks, the Board is actually expected to vote formally on the application process by Monday, September 19th, with a possible announcement by the Pac 12 shortly thereafter.
Other press reports stress that the high-level talks between Texas and Oklahoma were friendly, not confrontational or adversarial, with each school recognizing the mutual value their relationship holds to each other. To that end, it is reported that both schools apparently expressed a preference to move to a new conference home together - presumably the Pac 12 - which still implies that a disposition of the Longhorn Network pursuant to Pac 12 network rules remains to be negotiated and resolved. Oklahoma has conveyed to Texas its willingness to allow Texas to assess its own options independently. One observation emerging from these reports is that, while they may differ on the best way to run a conference, Oklahoma and Texas desire to foster their relationship regardless of their conference affiliations.
Nearly coincident with the reported decision of the OU Board of Regents was the announcement by SEC commissioner Mike Slive that his conference had now accepted Texas A&M's membership application, apparently implying that Baylor's threat to sue was no longer an obstacle or was now seen as posturing given Oklahoma's apparent resolve to leave the conference anyway. Slive, for now, is claiming that the SEC plans to add A&M in time for next season and play an unbalanced, 13-member schedule rather than rush to find a 14th member.
How Oklahoma's reported intentions affect the balance of the Big 12 is unclear. What is clear, however, is that only three reasonable scenarios remain at this time:
1. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the Pac 12 alone, with Texas remaining atop a gutted Big 12.
2. OU, OSU, Texas, and Texas Tech move to the Pac 12.
3. OU, OSU, Kansas, and Missouri move to the Pac 12.
The latter two options almost certainly imply the end of the Big 12, as a conference of only five members isn't viable and would offer little in the way of value to prospective new members unless lower-tier progarms were considered, thus diluting the conference's value further. The Big East was reportedly involved in unofficial overtures to Missouri, Baylor, and possibly one or both Kansas schools over the weekend. The ACC is also reported to have expressed interest in both OU and Texas, although that possibility seems remote at this time.
If Texas is unable to work out a deal to allow the Longhorn Network into the confines of the Pac 12, the possibility #3 arises, which would almost certainly force the Longhorns to go independent, or move to the ACC, or possibly even the Big 10. Such moves, at this point, are highly speculative.
This is but the first step in what stands to be a rocky road through realignment. We'll try to keep information consolidated here with as little wild speculation as possible.
Stay tuned!
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Early rumor: SEC VOTES TO EXTEND A&M INVITE
This is very early and unconfirmed, but David Sandhop, the publisher of Aggie Websider has tweeted that he believes the SEC has voted to extend a conference membership invitation to Texas A&M! Slive has also reportedly been authorized to negotiate with Missouri and West Virginia about becoming the 14th team.
Confirmation as I hear it!!!
Update: Aggie Websider has published a story on the SEC vote:
Update 10:39 PM: Chip Brown now says West Virginia was initial target for 14th team, but with Big 12 apparently imploding, Missouri is legit target.
SEC votes to invite A&M, negotiate with Missouri, W. Va.
Confirmation as I hear it!!!
Update: Aggie Websider has published a story on the SEC vote:
Update 10:39 PM: Chip Brown now says West Virginia was initial target for 14th team, but with Big 12 apparently imploding, Missouri is legit target.
SEC votes to invite A&M, negotiate with Missouri, W. Va.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
And then the SEC tells A&M...."Never mind...."
Update Monday, 6:54 AM CDT: Well, the saga continues...Multiple reports, spearheaded by Chris Brown at Orangebloods.com, indicate that yesterday's announcement by the SEC "reaffirming" their satisfaction with their current 12-team alignment, is posturing, and A&M's move is still going to happen.
Supposedly the announcement will come within the next 20 days, with yesterday's announcement giving SEC some public, "legal" distance from A&M's plans to defect from the Big 12. Some even suggest that an announcement from A&M that they will leave the Big 12, even without an existing formal invitation from another conference, may take place.
At this point, all we can do is watch and wait. - David
With all the diplomatic aplomb of an ill-timed belch, SEC leadership groin-kicked Texas A&M late this afternoon, voting not to extend the Aggies their heavily expected invitation to bolt the Big 12 and join the SEC.
Now, with A&M spending the weekend poising itself to make the grand announcement of their own independence from their hated Austin rivals and the broader Big 12 in general, A&M has the unenviable task of walking back home to the conference it hates, hat in hand, tail between its legs, trying to figure out a way to mend fences and reconstruct bridges it had spent the last week burning.
What does the SEC's sudden spurning of A&M's advances really suggest? Just as I suggested when this story broke, the SEC's quiet action in the midst of A&M's chest thumping was cause enough for A&M to be very careful. It was simple logic that the Aggies weren't going to be invited alone, implying another team would have to be prepared to drop the hammer and keep the SEC's competitive balance at 14 schools. That meant that it was entirely possible A&M was not the prime target in the SEC's scouting efforts - that, in reality, another team was targeted, and A&M was the team to balance. Today's blow to the head tells me that negotiations with the SEC's true intended fell through, and A&M was no longer needed.
In effect, A&M was played, played savagely, in an increasingly brutal game of take-no-prisoners conference management. The SEC knew that A&M was unhappy in the Big 12, unhappy with its perpetually second-tier status nationally, unhappy with the fact that reality of its program has never matched the ego of its fans. And the SEC took that unhappiness, slid it in its hip pocket, and played the Ags like a violin when the glimmer of hope for the team the SEC really wanted arose, then faded.
Who did the SEC really want? I obviously don't know for a fact, but its easy for me to speculate. And I speculate that, somehow, Mike Slive and the SEC found out that Florida State, if given half a chance, would join the SEC tribe and deliver one of college football's great rivalries - Florida-Florida State. Somewhere, in the midst of the last week, FSU either had change of heart, or communicated they were never really interested in the first place. Who knows. In the end, the SEC is unchanged, the Big 12 continues to persist.
And Texas A&M is still very, very unhappy.
Supposedly the announcement will come within the next 20 days, with yesterday's announcement giving SEC some public, "legal" distance from A&M's plans to defect from the Big 12. Some even suggest that an announcement from A&M that they will leave the Big 12, even without an existing formal invitation from another conference, may take place.
At this point, all we can do is watch and wait. - David
With all the diplomatic aplomb of an ill-timed belch, SEC leadership groin-kicked Texas A&M late this afternoon, voting not to extend the Aggies their heavily expected invitation to bolt the Big 12 and join the SEC.
Now, with A&M spending the weekend poising itself to make the grand announcement of their own independence from their hated Austin rivals and the broader Big 12 in general, A&M has the unenviable task of walking back home to the conference it hates, hat in hand, tail between its legs, trying to figure out a way to mend fences and reconstruct bridges it had spent the last week burning.
What does the SEC's sudden spurning of A&M's advances really suggest? Just as I suggested when this story broke, the SEC's quiet action in the midst of A&M's chest thumping was cause enough for A&M to be very careful. It was simple logic that the Aggies weren't going to be invited alone, implying another team would have to be prepared to drop the hammer and keep the SEC's competitive balance at 14 schools. That meant that it was entirely possible A&M was not the prime target in the SEC's scouting efforts - that, in reality, another team was targeted, and A&M was the team to balance. Today's blow to the head tells me that negotiations with the SEC's true intended fell through, and A&M was no longer needed.
In effect, A&M was played, played savagely, in an increasingly brutal game of take-no-prisoners conference management. The SEC knew that A&M was unhappy in the Big 12, unhappy with its perpetually second-tier status nationally, unhappy with the fact that reality of its program has never matched the ego of its fans. And the SEC took that unhappiness, slid it in its hip pocket, and played the Ags like a violin when the glimmer of hope for the team the SEC really wanted arose, then faded.
Who did the SEC really want? I obviously don't know for a fact, but its easy for me to speculate. And I speculate that, somehow, Mike Slive and the SEC found out that Florida State, if given half a chance, would join the SEC tribe and deliver one of college football's great rivalries - Florida-Florida State. Somewhere, in the midst of the last week, FSU either had change of heart, or communicated they were never really interested in the first place. Who knows. In the end, the SEC is unchanged, the Big 12 continues to persist.
And Texas A&M is still very, very unhappy.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Conference Shuffling 2011 - More Talk...
Update Saturday, 7:10 PM CDT: Orangebloods.com is now reporting that the remaining Big 12 AD's (minus A&M) have vowed solidarity to the conference. OU has supposedly said it is not interested in the SEC. If A&M leaves, the Big 12 would look to fill the vacancy, with a current short list of BYU, Air Force, Houston, or TCU. Now, how TCU would fit in the picture given their new alignment with the Big East is unexplained.
It looks like the crippled, castrated Big 12 is going to try and limp along as an embarrassing, 9-member remnant of college football that seems to be shifting around its members without touching them. Even if they pick-up a leftover from a middling conference as a 10th member, its a pitiful shadow of what it was just one season ago. It's amazing to me that programs the stature of Oklahoma or even Texas aren't making overtures to conferences that have something more credible than Dan Beebe as their leader.
Update Saturday, 5:03 PM CDT: CBS Sports' Gregg Doyel reports that Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and two other "unnamed" Big 12 schools inquired of the Big 10 about joining their conference. They were declined due to their academic standing.
This continues to reflect the ongoing scramble for conference realignment with virtually all major sources concurring that A&M will leave the Big 12 for the SEC, and the SEC apparently soliciting several other schools as well.
Update Saturday, 9:30 AM CDT: BIG NEWS: ESPN's Doug Gottlieb is now reporting from his own sources that A&M will, in fact, join the SEC. That's not necessarily new news; however, the other element he is reporting IS big news: Reportedly, three NEW teams are planning the SEC jump, and they are Clemson, Florida State, and Missouri. With A&M and now Missouri departing, the Big 12 is a dead duck. The only question now, where will Oklahoma, Texas, and the rest of the Castrated 12 go? All bets look like the Pac 12 will be the winner. More as it happens!
Update 11:03 CDT....One fairly significant event to note - A&M has apparently scheduled a regents' meeting for Monday to discuss "all matters....relating to conference alignment." Florida State still officially denies they are being courted.
I still think the NCAA is going to have a finger in this, and try its darndest to stop any potential expansion. The threat superconferences pose to the NCAA is very real, but exactly how they can prevent them without some sort of leverage is hard to contemplate.
Rather than continually update yesterday's post about A&M, it seemed ripe to start fresh and evaluate where we are in the whirlwind of new conference realignment talks.
What do we know now? For concrete facts, very little. We have strong indications that Texas A&M will formally announce its intent to join the SEC on or about August 22, although there have been "non-denial denials" all over the place. I think this aspect, with details pending, is going to happen.
The next question I asked here is simple: Given that the SEC wouldn't be taking just one team, they'd take at least two, and maybe four, who was the next school on the SEC's list? Current reports and rumors strongly indicate that other school is Florida State. Supposedly, one insider at the athletic department of one current SEC school claims the conference is "confident" they will announce A&M and FSU as new members within the next two weeks.
That same source also indicates that the SEC might be emboldened to jump to superconference status by ramping up to 16 teams, possibly seeking Oklahoma and possibly Clemson.
If the SEC plans a chess move to a superconference, one has to wonder if the same anonymous "interested parties" thatblocked the formation of the Pac 16 prserved what was left of the "Big" 12 would step in to prevent an "SEC 16?"
The NCAA wants no part of superconferences, for they fear the organization of an entity that jeopardizes their existence. It would not surprise me to find they were part of the "interested parties" that helped put the kibosh on the Big 12's split last year. If ESPN doesn't want to renegotiate its SEC deal and find its newly inked agreements with the BCS to be worth slightly less than the king's ransom they paid for it, it would seem logical they might use backdoor channels into the NCAA to solicit their assitance in stopping this iteration as well.
How? Stopping all the movement would presumably be simple - figure out a way to shut down the Longhorn Network, presumably the proverbial straw that broke A&M's back and led them to pursue the SEC. If the NCAA could apply pressure sufficient to force the Horns into shutting down their network before it started, A&M would have won the battle and the war. If the NCAA couldn't stop them, it would demonstrate just how serious a superconference threat would be to the NCAA's power and influence over college athletics.
How will it all shake out? At this point, who knows. COnventional wisdom holds that OU and Oklahoma State are tied at the hip, and would first want to head west to the Pac 12. OU wants no part of the SEC recruiting quagmire. Missouri has to be attractive to someone with its proximity to the St. Louis TV market, making a prospective Big 10 jump a very real possibility. Either way, it seems all-but impossible for what's left of the Big 12 to survive as a credible conference if A&M bolts.
Watch this space for updates as they come in!
It looks like the crippled, castrated Big 12 is going to try and limp along as an embarrassing, 9-member remnant of college football that seems to be shifting around its members without touching them. Even if they pick-up a leftover from a middling conference as a 10th member, its a pitiful shadow of what it was just one season ago. It's amazing to me that programs the stature of Oklahoma or even Texas aren't making overtures to conferences that have something more credible than Dan Beebe as their leader.
Update Saturday, 5:03 PM CDT: CBS Sports' Gregg Doyel reports that Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and two other "unnamed" Big 12 schools inquired of the Big 10 about joining their conference. They were declined due to their academic standing.
This continues to reflect the ongoing scramble for conference realignment with virtually all major sources concurring that A&M will leave the Big 12 for the SEC, and the SEC apparently soliciting several other schools as well.
Update Saturday, 9:30 AM CDT: BIG NEWS: ESPN's Doug Gottlieb is now reporting from his own sources that A&M will, in fact, join the SEC. That's not necessarily new news; however, the other element he is reporting IS big news: Reportedly, three NEW teams are planning the SEC jump, and they are Clemson, Florida State, and Missouri. With A&M and now Missouri departing, the Big 12 is a dead duck. The only question now, where will Oklahoma, Texas, and the rest of the Castrated 12 go? All bets look like the Pac 12 will be the winner. More as it happens!
Update 11:03 CDT....One fairly significant event to note - A&M has apparently scheduled a regents' meeting for Monday to discuss "all matters....relating to conference alignment." Florida State still officially denies they are being courted.
I still think the NCAA is going to have a finger in this, and try its darndest to stop any potential expansion. The threat superconferences pose to the NCAA is very real, but exactly how they can prevent them without some sort of leverage is hard to contemplate.
Rather than continually update yesterday's post about A&M, it seemed ripe to start fresh and evaluate where we are in the whirlwind of new conference realignment talks.
What do we know now? For concrete facts, very little. We have strong indications that Texas A&M will formally announce its intent to join the SEC on or about August 22, although there have been "non-denial denials" all over the place. I think this aspect, with details pending, is going to happen.
The next question I asked here is simple: Given that the SEC wouldn't be taking just one team, they'd take at least two, and maybe four, who was the next school on the SEC's list? Current reports and rumors strongly indicate that other school is Florida State. Supposedly, one insider at the athletic department of one current SEC school claims the conference is "confident" they will announce A&M and FSU as new members within the next two weeks.
That same source also indicates that the SEC might be emboldened to jump to superconference status by ramping up to 16 teams, possibly seeking Oklahoma and possibly Clemson.
If the SEC plans a chess move to a superconference, one has to wonder if the same anonymous "interested parties" that
The NCAA wants no part of superconferences, for they fear the organization of an entity that jeopardizes their existence. It would not surprise me to find they were part of the "interested parties" that helped put the kibosh on the Big 12's split last year. If ESPN doesn't want to renegotiate its SEC deal and find its newly inked agreements with the BCS to be worth slightly less than the king's ransom they paid for it, it would seem logical they might use backdoor channels into the NCAA to solicit their assitance in stopping this iteration as well.
How? Stopping all the movement would presumably be simple - figure out a way to shut down the Longhorn Network, presumably the proverbial straw that broke A&M's back and led them to pursue the SEC. If the NCAA could apply pressure sufficient to force the Horns into shutting down their network before it started, A&M would have won the battle and the war. If the NCAA couldn't stop them, it would demonstrate just how serious a superconference threat would be to the NCAA's power and influence over college athletics.
How will it all shake out? At this point, who knows. COnventional wisdom holds that OU and Oklahoma State are tied at the hip, and would first want to head west to the Pac 12. OU wants no part of the SEC recruiting quagmire. Missouri has to be attractive to someone with its proximity to the St. Louis TV market, making a prospective Big 10 jump a very real possibility. Either way, it seems all-but impossible for what's left of the Big 12 to survive as a credible conference if A&M bolts.
Watch this space for updates as they come in!
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Texas A&M to the SEC - Update
Update @ 9:13 PM CST: Sporting News is reporting that stories of A&M joining the SEC are "just not true." However, considering the other stories that have come out tonight, this "high ranking SEC" statement is consistent with what we've known - that there cannot be a formal announcement until August 22.
Moreover, the SN story quoted their source as saying that various other leaders within the conference must be contacted before a formal invitation could be extended, which makes perfect sense given the 11 days between now and the reported August 22 announcement date.
It's all still fluid, and could still go by the boards, but right now I still stand on the side of A&M leaving. I keep wondering if we're going to hear rumors about contingency plans for OU, Texas, and the rest of the "Not Even Close to 12" should the A&M defection happen. Stay tuned.
Update @ 8:03 PM CST: Lots of media rumors and stories, hard to separate original reporting from reports-on-other reports. Newest source of fairly reliable information is coming from Orangebloods.com, link here, which says that A&M regents will vote on an SEC membership issue on August 22, and nothing official can be discussed before then.
Now, obviously, all of this is very fluid, and tons of hype is flowing everywhere, so all of this is subject to change, but the rumbling continue to suggest that A&M really is going to the SEC.
Update @ 7:47 PM CST: According to the Texas A&M Rivals site, A&M is going to the SEC!!! I must admit that I'm stunned. Read their story here. If this proves true, it almost certainly spells the end of what's left of the Big 12, and who knows where the dominoes will fall. Only time will tell!!!
Rumors on the Internet are like flies around the tail of a Texas horse - frequent, annoying, and generally swatted away.
Yet one such rumor - that of Texas A&M moving to the SEC - was promoted to full-fledged credible gossip when A&M president R. Bowen Loftin issued a curious statement pledging that he will always "look after" the best interests of the University.
You can read the entirety of the quote here.
Rumors of A&M to the SEC started last year as talks of a mass migration of teams from the Big 12 to the Pac 10 gained steam. Just as the move seemed an inevitability, an eleventh-hour deal among "interested parties" funneled more revenue to the conference and putting the kibosh on the move. Now the talks are, supposedly, starting up again.
There's only one problem. The SEC isn't going to accept just one team. If the SEC is serious about inviting A&M, it makes sense they're just as serious about inviting another, as yet unnamed school to compliment the Aggies.
The question is simple: What other school is in the SEC's gunsites? The only two high-profile programs that would seem likely candidates from the remnants of the erstwhile Big 12 would be Texas and Oklahoma; yet Texas with its new Longhorn Network hardly seems a fit for the SEC and its new ESPN contract. Oklahoma could be a legitimate second candidate, but chances are the Sooners would not move without a package deal including Oklahoma State.
The bigger fish is out there. Common sense says it has to be, with A&M serving only as the lure. That means that, as the Aggies deal with the SEC, they would do well to tread very, very cautiously. Why? If the second team on the SEC's agenda falls through, prospective talks with the Aggies could end abruptly, leaving A&M nowhere to go but back to league it, apparently, desperately wants to leave.
Let the rumors fly.
Update: Some media outlets have pointed out that the ONLY place from which the A&M-to-the-SEC rumors seem to be originating is College Station. There's been no vibe or rumor from any SEC outlets or sources, which means this may all be nothing more than disgruntled saber rattling by the Aggies....and, as of 5:30pm CST Thursday, College Station continues to be the only place other than the media talking this issue...
Moreover, the SN story quoted their source as saying that various other leaders within the conference must be contacted before a formal invitation could be extended, which makes perfect sense given the 11 days between now and the reported August 22 announcement date.
It's all still fluid, and could still go by the boards, but right now I still stand on the side of A&M leaving. I keep wondering if we're going to hear rumors about contingency plans for OU, Texas, and the rest of the "Not Even Close to 12" should the A&M defection happen. Stay tuned.
Update @ 8:03 PM CST: Lots of media rumors and stories, hard to separate original reporting from reports-on-other reports. Newest source of fairly reliable information is coming from Orangebloods.com, link here, which says that A&M regents will vote on an SEC membership issue on August 22, and nothing official can be discussed before then.
Now, obviously, all of this is very fluid, and tons of hype is flowing everywhere, so all of this is subject to change, but the rumbling continue to suggest that A&M really is going to the SEC.
Update @ 7:47 PM CST: According to the Texas A&M Rivals site, A&M is going to the SEC!!! I must admit that I'm stunned. Read their story here. If this proves true, it almost certainly spells the end of what's left of the Big 12, and who knows where the dominoes will fall. Only time will tell!!!
Rumors on the Internet are like flies around the tail of a Texas horse - frequent, annoying, and generally swatted away.
Yet one such rumor - that of Texas A&M moving to the SEC - was promoted to full-fledged credible gossip when A&M president R. Bowen Loftin issued a curious statement pledging that he will always "look after" the best interests of the University.
You can read the entirety of the quote here.
Rumors of A&M to the SEC started last year as talks of a mass migration of teams from the Big 12 to the Pac 10 gained steam. Just as the move seemed an inevitability, an eleventh-hour deal among "interested parties" funneled more revenue to the conference and putting the kibosh on the move. Now the talks are, supposedly, starting up again.
There's only one problem. The SEC isn't going to accept just one team. If the SEC is serious about inviting A&M, it makes sense they're just as serious about inviting another, as yet unnamed school to compliment the Aggies.
The question is simple: What other school is in the SEC's gunsites? The only two high-profile programs that would seem likely candidates from the remnants of the erstwhile Big 12 would be Texas and Oklahoma; yet Texas with its new Longhorn Network hardly seems a fit for the SEC and its new ESPN contract. Oklahoma could be a legitimate second candidate, but chances are the Sooners would not move without a package deal including Oklahoma State.
The bigger fish is out there. Common sense says it has to be, with A&M serving only as the lure. That means that, as the Aggies deal with the SEC, they would do well to tread very, very cautiously. Why? If the second team on the SEC's agenda falls through, prospective talks with the Aggies could end abruptly, leaving A&M nowhere to go but back to league it, apparently, desperately wants to leave.
Let the rumors fly.
Update: Some media outlets have pointed out that the ONLY place from which the A&M-to-the-SEC rumors seem to be originating is College Station. There's been no vibe or rumor from any SEC outlets or sources, which means this may all be nothing more than disgruntled saber rattling by the Aggies....and, as of 5:30pm CST Thursday, College Station continues to be the only place other than the media talking this issue...
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