A&M is now in the SEC: OU, OSU on way to Pac 12

Update 9/13/2011 @ 9:59pm CDT


Probably the last update for the night, but a bit of interesting news coming around. One independent writer is at least suggesting the possibility that "UT to ACC" talk is being orchestrated by Austin, and that contacts with ACC ties have no clue of any such discussions ongoing. As I said, interesting. FWIW.


Update 9/13/2011 @ 6:37pm CDT


Possible big news pending, but still presently VERY iffy: Texas is apparently seriously considering a move to the ACC solely to preserve the Longhorn Network. Again, *very* sketchy and *not* confirmed, but this is at a minimum an increasing possibility. Hang on.


Stay tuned.


Update 9/13/2011 @ 4:53pm CDT


Not a great deal of startling new news, but some tidbits:


Multiple media sources indicate that the Big 12 conference is finished. Oklahoma has made clear its intent to depart the conference in search of "stability," presumably in the Pac 12-14-16, and formal application/acceptance could occur as early as Monday/Tuesday of next week...however...


Oklahoma will allow Texas the opportunity to make an independent decision regarding Pac 12 membership, in the event UT would not want to have the appearance of "following" Oklahoma. The mutual preference is for both schools to move together. While Oklahoma is playing a strong hand, they're working hard not to alienate UT in the process.


Texas is at least contemplating the possibility of joining the ACC. The exact terms of how the Longhorn Network would fit in the ACC are unclear, as that conference also has an equal-sharing rights revenue model. One scenario discussed included all non-football sports going to the ACC, but football remaining independent. Although possible, my opinion is this option is unlikely.


ESPN continues to spin that Texas is acting even now to save the conference, casting them in a noble light, and vilifying Oklahoma. This is, at best, a mischaracterization of reality. Texas has already acknowledged internally that the Big 12 is not viable without Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and will dissolve. Oklahoma made its intentions clear to Texas during meetings last weekend.


Missouri is a possible candidate for the SEC's 14th team, despite Mike Slive's claims that he won't immediately seek a 14th team following A&M's addition.


Most OKC media reports indicate Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will being playing its Pac 14 schedule with the 2012 season. Although there continue to be reports that Texas will explore other options, I still hold that the most likely reality to emerge is OU, Ok State, Texas, and Texas Tech to move to the Pac 16.


More as I hear it.


-David



Things moved very quickly this afternoon, which we have now found out to be a result of high-level weekend meetings, decisions, and the leading edge of what stands to be a tumultuous series of weeks before conference realignment settles.

Here's what we've learned from this weekend.

Over the weekend, a high-level delegation from the University of Texas flew to Norman and engaged in "friendly," high-level talks to determine what criteria, if any, were available to persuade Oklahoma to remain in the Big 12 Conference. Oklahoma, led by David Boren, is reported to have enumerated a specific list of requirements, a list that Texas was not willing to accede. As a result, the talks concluded politely, but unproductively, and the die was cast for Oklahoma to move with its intentions to depart the conference.

Today, the OU Board of Regents is said to have met, and after a briefing of the weekend's talks from President Boren, unanimously voted to move forward with the process of applying for membership in the Pac 12 conference. Press reports indicate that while the process is expected to complete within two weeks, the Board is actually expected to vote formally on the application process by Monday, September 19th, with a possible announcement by the Pac 12 shortly thereafter.

Other press reports stress that the high-level talks between Texas and Oklahoma were friendly, not confrontational or adversarial, with each school recognizing the mutual value their relationship holds to each other. To that end, it is reported that both schools apparently expressed a preference to move to a new conference home together - presumably the Pac 12 - which still implies that a disposition of the Longhorn Network pursuant to Pac 12 network rules remains to be negotiated and resolved. Oklahoma has conveyed to Texas its willingness to allow Texas to assess its own options independently. One observation emerging from these reports is that, while they may differ on the best way to run a conference, Oklahoma and Texas desire to foster their relationship regardless of their conference affiliations.

Nearly coincident with the reported decision of the OU Board of Regents was the announcement by SEC commissioner Mike Slive that his conference had now accepted Texas A&M's membership application, apparently implying that Baylor's threat to sue was no longer an obstacle or was now seen as posturing given Oklahoma's apparent resolve to leave the conference anyway. Slive, for now, is claiming that the SEC plans to add A&M in time for next season and play an unbalanced, 13-member schedule rather than rush to find a 14th member.

How Oklahoma's reported intentions affect the balance of the Big 12 is unclear. What is clear, however, is that only three reasonable scenarios remain at this time:

1. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move to the Pac 12 alone, with Texas remaining atop a gutted Big 12.
2. OU, OSU, Texas, and Texas Tech move to the Pac 12.
3. OU, OSU, Kansas, and Missouri move to the Pac 12.

The latter two options almost certainly imply the end of the Big 12, as a conference of only five members isn't viable and would offer little in the way of value to prospective new members unless lower-tier progarms were considered, thus diluting the conference's value further. The Big East was reportedly involved in unofficial overtures to Missouri, Baylor, and possibly one or both Kansas schools over the weekend. The ACC is also reported to have expressed interest in both OU and Texas, although that possibility seems remote at this time.

If Texas is unable to work out a deal to allow the Longhorn Network into the confines of the Pac 12, the possibility #3 arises, which would almost certainly force the Longhorns to go independent, or move to the ACC, or possibly even the Big 10. Such moves, at this point, are highly speculative.

This is but the first step in what stands to be a rocky road through realignment. We'll try to keep information consolidated here with as little wild speculation as possible.

Stay tuned!

Realignment Summary

As of 6:30 AM Wednesday morning, here's where we are:

* SEC voted to extend membership invitation to A&M, with two diesents

* SEC would pursue Missouri or West Virginia as 14th member

* New rumor are suggesting SEC's offer is contingent upon a waiver of lawsuit from Big 12, but this is unconfirmed and reported only from Orangebloods.com

* Most sources continue to believe notion of Texas joining ACC as not credible, being used as leverage to discourage Oklahoma from busting the Big 12 and ending the OU-Texas rivalry

 * A&M is expected to announce their acceptance of the SEC invitation today. If the lawsuit waiver issue is true, that could be delayed

Thoughts: If the Big 12 had designs to sue the SEC, why would they agree to a mutual waiver of claims in allowing Texas A&M to depart in the first place? That is, if there's tortious interferene on one side, there's a willful breach of contract on the other - but the Big 12 released those claims, did they not? Besides, if the Big 12 dissolves, what entity would engage in the lawsuit? A threat from individual schools, such as Baylor, would be more credible, but one would assume a waiver of claims by the conference would presumably extend to each of its members individually and possibly survive the conference itself.

With the Big East courting (at least) Big 12 refugees Kansas and Kansas State, it would seem the Big 12 is destined to dissolve. With multiple sources - notably OKC and Houston broadcast and print media - reporting that the Longhorn Network would be converted into something amenable to the Pac 12, it still seems that the smart money is on OU, OkState, Texas, and Texas Tech heading to the Pac 12.

Stay tuned.

Conference Shuffling 2011 - More Talk...

Update Saturday, 7:10 PM CDT: Orangebloods.com is now reporting that the remaining Big 12 AD's (minus A&M) have vowed solidarity to the conference. OU has supposedly said it is not interested in the SEC. If A&M leaves, the Big 12 would look to fill the vacancy, with a current short list of BYU, Air Force, Houston, or TCU. Now, how TCU would fit in the picture given their new alignment with the Big East is unexplained.

It looks like the crippled, castrated Big 12 is going to try and limp along as an embarrassing, 9-member remnant of college football that seems to be shifting around its members without touching them. Even if they pick-up a leftover from a middling conference as a 10th member, its a pitiful shadow of what it was just one season ago. It's amazing to me that programs the stature of Oklahoma or even Texas aren't making overtures to conferences that have something more credible than Dan Beebe as their leader.


Update Saturday, 5:03 PM CDT: CBS Sports' Gregg Doyel reports that Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and two other "unnamed" Big 12 schools inquired of the Big 10 about joining their conference. They were declined due to their academic standing.

This continues to reflect the ongoing scramble for conference realignment with virtually all major sources concurring that A&M will leave the Big 12 for the SEC, and the SEC apparently soliciting several other schools as well.



Update Saturday, 9:30 AM CDT: BIG NEWS: ESPN's Doug Gottlieb is now reporting from his own sources that A&M will, in fact, join the SEC. That's not necessarily new news; however, the other element he is reporting IS big news: Reportedly, three NEW teams are planning the SEC jump, and they are Clemson, Florida State, and Missouri. With A&M and now Missouri departing, the Big 12 is a dead duck. The only question now, where will Oklahoma, Texas, and the rest of the Castrated 12 go? All bets look like the Pac 12 will be the winner. More as it happens!



Update 11:03 CDT....One fairly significant event to note - A&M has apparently scheduled a regents' meeting for Monday to discuss "all matters....relating to conference alignment." Florida State still officially denies they are being courted.


I still think the NCAA is going to have a finger in this, and try its darndest to stop any potential expansion. The threat superconferences pose to the NCAA is very real, but exactly how they can prevent them without some sort of leverage is hard to contemplate.


Rather than continually update yesterday's post about A&M, it seemed ripe to start fresh and evaluate where we are in the whirlwind of new conference realignment talks.

What do we know now? For concrete facts, very little. We have strong indications that Texas A&M will formally announce its intent to join the SEC on or about August 22, although there have been "non-denial denials" all over the place. I think this aspect, with details pending, is going to happen.

The next question I asked here is simple: Given that the SEC wouldn't be taking just one team, they'd take at least two, and maybe four, who was the next school on the SEC's list? Current reports and rumors strongly indicate that other school is Florida State. Supposedly, one insider at the athletic department of one current SEC school claims the conference is "confident" they will announce A&M and FSU as new members within the next two weeks.

That same source also indicates that the SEC might be emboldened to jump to superconference status by ramping up to 16 teams, possibly seeking Oklahoma and possibly Clemson.

If the SEC plans a chess move to a superconference, one has to wonder if the same anonymous "interested parties" that blocked the formation of the Pac 16 prserved what was left of the "Big" 12 would step in to prevent an "SEC 16?"

The NCAA wants no part of superconferences, for they fear the organization of an entity that jeopardizes their existence. It would not surprise me to find they were part of the "interested parties" that helped put the kibosh on the Big 12's split last year. If ESPN doesn't want to renegotiate its SEC deal and find its newly inked agreements with the BCS to be worth slightly less than the king's ransom they paid for it, it would seem logical they might use backdoor channels into the NCAA to solicit their assitance in stopping this iteration as well.

How? Stopping all the movement would presumably be simple - figure out a way to shut down the Longhorn Network, presumably the proverbial straw that broke A&M's back and led them to pursue the SEC. If the NCAA could apply pressure sufficient to force the Horns into shutting down their network before it started, A&M would have won the battle and the war. If the NCAA couldn't stop them, it would demonstrate just how serious a superconference threat would be to the NCAA's power and influence over college athletics.

How will it all shake out? At this point, who knows. COnventional wisdom holds that OU and Oklahoma State are tied at the hip, and would first want to head west to the Pac 12. OU wants no part of the SEC recruiting quagmire. Missouri has to be attractive to someone with its proximity to the St. Louis TV market, making a prospective Big 10 jump a very real possibility. Either way, it seems all-but impossible for what's left of the Big 12 to survive as a credible conference if A&M bolts.

Watch this space for updates as they come in!