Realignment: The Week Ahead

Update 9/19 @ 8:16 PM:


A few nuggets:


Oklahoma Board of Regents have formally authorized president David Boren to pursue any action necessary regarding conference alignment. Nothing surprising there. 


Big East will apparently hold Pitt (and presumably Syracuse) to its contract, meaning a June 2014 exit date (earliest). No word on whether Pitt could buy its way out to an earlier date. 


Mountain West and Conference-USA are discussing a merger.


Remnants of Big East likely to merge with remnants of Big 12. Both likely can't survive.


Posturing: Info from a few sources reiterates that the Pac 12 will not budge in its insistence that all third-tier revenues from networks be shared among all teams in the conference. OU insists that equal revenue sharing is the only way it would consider staying in Big 12. Not a great deal new there, but it does make one wonder....


Musing: If Texas has presumably been checkmated into an equal revenue sharing agreement no matter where they go, why would they not consider telling OU "okay, equal sharing, we stay if you stay," making OU and UT the kingpins of a dead-on-the-vine conference - a true "AL East" as postulated by Mark Cuban. Reality suggests that members of the presumably enlarged Pac 16 stand to earn as much as $35 million (nearly double) in an expanded conference, which would seemingly make that choice a near no-brainer. 


Right now, I still think it's the Gang of Four heading west after some saber-rattling, but we'll see.


Clarification 9/19 @ 1:53PM Oklahoma's Board of Regents meeting now. Alignment (way) down the agenda.


One item I wanted to clarify in the midst of the updates is the issue of OU's "invitation" (or lack thereof) to the Pac 12. I stand behind (several) local media member reports over the last two wweeks (and tweets) that stated quite plainly that Oklahoma has a standing, informal, "unofficial" agreement with the Pac 12 to join their conference with Oklahoma State regardless of Texas' action. I have read nothing to contradict that issue, not even spin from Orangebloods.com. 


This agreement, as best I can understand it, was worked out between OU Athletics Director Joe Castiglione and Pac 12 commissioner Larry Scott close to two weeks ago. When the agreement was reached, a local reporter said that "(Castiglione) looked the most relieved he'd been in weeks." 


Right now, Texas is the team with no leverage. None. No conference wants the Longhorn Network as it sits. Public posturing indicates Texas is trying to play a measure of hardball with LHN in its Pac 12 negotiations, when in reality playing that kind of poker with a handful of blank cards and no chips gives you very little room to raise the stakes. With no alternatives, Texas either goes independent, or accedes to Pac 12 rules. There's really no middle ground. While Oklahoma is patient and wants to create at least the appearance of unity with Texas, don't think for a second David Boren won't press forward independently in a heartbeat should he decide it is in OU's best interests to do so .


This week stands to be the biggest yet in the shifting tides of conference realignment.

Texas and Oklahoma's respective Boards of Regents will be meeting to empower their presidents to make a deal with whatever conference they deem appropriate. The current speculation is that both are headed to the Pac-12, but hurdles - perhaps significant - remain, chief among them the Longhorn Network and Texas' willingness to shrink it to Pac-12 rules. Another hurdle is whether conference presidents are willing to admit schools with supposedly secondary academic status, although it would seem commissioner Larry Scott should be able to overcome them.

The Pac-12 is showing no signs of budging on its network rules, with the WilmerReport suggesting that Missouri could be on the conference's radar should Texas not come to terms. That would implicitly imperil Tech's move as well.

The SEC is reported quietly looking to jump to 16 teams, reportedly likely to accept West Virginia's upcoming application. The ACC apparently also believes that they are also about to lose Florida State to the SEC as well, meaning a currently unknown 16th team is likely brewing in the SEC's radar.

Acrimony in the Big East came to a head with the sudden departure of Syracuse and Pitt, and now suggestions are that the conference may not survive. Remants of the Big 12 and the Big East may merge to form a new regional conference.

This week should prove to be most interesting. Stay tuned.

After all this, nothing??

Update 1:23 CDT Sat: Orangebloods.com is reporting that the P12 is telling OU and OSU they have no expansion plans at this time, spinning that as an end to the presumed Sooner option of the Pac 12. I cast great doubt on that spin. Of course Pac 12 wants no part of predator perception, and of course Texas wants to make OU think it has no options. That this story comes from a Texas Rivals site makes me all the more suspicious - of course it would be a willing "mouthpiece" for such a spin. Does anyone really, really believe the Pac 12 wouldn't take an OU if they became available? 


Saturday morning brings with it the hope of *actual* football, not merely the public bickering and rumoring over whose team belongs with which conference. Yet in the shadow of the goalposts does realignment loom, and while there's not a great deal of new news on that front, we can take a moment to see where we are, and make a subject-to-change conclusion:

Right now, I have this sinking feeling we may end up right where we are now, with no big realignment after all.

Why? Baylor continues to serve as the roadblock to Texas A&M's departure, refusing to waive its rights to sue both A&M and the SEC for tortious interference in its conference membership activities. Simply put, if no resolution to the Baylor Stalemate is found, there may be no other option for the Aggies but to return, hat-in-hand, to a crippled and self-mutilated Big 12. It's been said that A&M's move represents the first domino in realignment, but if it never falls...nothing else happens. Even if Oklahoma re-ups with the Big 12, allowing A&M to depart, the big four-team prize of OU, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech to the Pac 12 would have inherently been blown apart, leaving the SEC looking for a 14th team that it might not grab until next season, willing to play an unbalanced schedule in the near-term.

The other thing pointing in the we-go-nowhere direction is T. Boone Pickens' comment on ESPN last Thursday that suggested the Pokes were interested in staying in the Big 12. That could be taken one of two ways: That some sort of agreement was nearly hammered out, or talks were in a last-gasp phase. It could be that Pickens is riding point for a behind-the-scenes negotiation between OU president David Boren and, well, the rest of college football.

To cap it off, Pac 12 commissioner Larry Scott came out last night stating he personally was against conference expansion. But you and I both know that if the SEC does, in fact, jump to a 13th, and 14th team, there's no way on earth his conference would stand pat and not respond.

There is obviously critical momentum riding decidedly against the Big 12's survival, chief among them being the question of how this fractious, embarrassed, dysfunctional conference family could ever reconstitute itself into a cohesive, respected, collegial athletic entity. Nationally, the conference is a laughingstock, a target of unrelenting media ridicule, with bridges burned between high-profile members. UT and A&M have never been so close to outright armed conflict. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have expressed outright anger over apparent orchestrations from Baylor to put each, in their own way, in a bad light. With so much angst, how could anyone in this conference trust anyone else? And why would anyone on the outside want to join?

Regardless of the outcome, no one, repeat, no one looks worse or less competent in this fiasco than Dan Beebe who, besides carrying the title of worst sports leader this side of Bug Selig, has seemingly stood by and allowed the Big 12 to burn while he fiddles. Perhaps a "reincarnated" Big 12 could survive, but only if every vestige of Beebe's (lack of) leadership were vanquished from the books - as in new leadership, a new conference charter (with equal revenue sharing), even a new headquarters. How anyone nationally could perceive that as anything other than lipstick on a pig is beyond me.

Oklahoma still seems to hold the cards, but rest assured the Sooners won't make a move until the weekend passes, particularly considering this weekend includes services for its late, great Lee Roy Selmon. Until then, anyone - even yours truly - who says they know what happening is sniffing that smoke coming from that Big 12 fire.

And Dan Beebe is still fiddling.