Realignment: The Week Ahead

Update 9/19 @ 8:16 PM:


A few nuggets:


Oklahoma Board of Regents have formally authorized president David Boren to pursue any action necessary regarding conference alignment. Nothing surprising there. 


Big East will apparently hold Pitt (and presumably Syracuse) to its contract, meaning a June 2014 exit date (earliest). No word on whether Pitt could buy its way out to an earlier date. 


Mountain West and Conference-USA are discussing a merger.


Remnants of Big East likely to merge with remnants of Big 12. Both likely can't survive.


Posturing: Info from a few sources reiterates that the Pac 12 will not budge in its insistence that all third-tier revenues from networks be shared among all teams in the conference. OU insists that equal revenue sharing is the only way it would consider staying in Big 12. Not a great deal new there, but it does make one wonder....


Musing: If Texas has presumably been checkmated into an equal revenue sharing agreement no matter where they go, why would they not consider telling OU "okay, equal sharing, we stay if you stay," making OU and UT the kingpins of a dead-on-the-vine conference - a true "AL East" as postulated by Mark Cuban. Reality suggests that members of the presumably enlarged Pac 16 stand to earn as much as $35 million (nearly double) in an expanded conference, which would seemingly make that choice a near no-brainer. 


Right now, I still think it's the Gang of Four heading west after some saber-rattling, but we'll see.


Clarification 9/19 @ 1:53PM Oklahoma's Board of Regents meeting now. Alignment (way) down the agenda.


One item I wanted to clarify in the midst of the updates is the issue of OU's "invitation" (or lack thereof) to the Pac 12. I stand behind (several) local media member reports over the last two wweeks (and tweets) that stated quite plainly that Oklahoma has a standing, informal, "unofficial" agreement with the Pac 12 to join their conference with Oklahoma State regardless of Texas' action. I have read nothing to contradict that issue, not even spin from Orangebloods.com. 


This agreement, as best I can understand it, was worked out between OU Athletics Director Joe Castiglione and Pac 12 commissioner Larry Scott close to two weeks ago. When the agreement was reached, a local reporter said that "(Castiglione) looked the most relieved he'd been in weeks." 


Right now, Texas is the team with no leverage. None. No conference wants the Longhorn Network as it sits. Public posturing indicates Texas is trying to play a measure of hardball with LHN in its Pac 12 negotiations, when in reality playing that kind of poker with a handful of blank cards and no chips gives you very little room to raise the stakes. With no alternatives, Texas either goes independent, or accedes to Pac 12 rules. There's really no middle ground. While Oklahoma is patient and wants to create at least the appearance of unity with Texas, don't think for a second David Boren won't press forward independently in a heartbeat should he decide it is in OU's best interests to do so .


This week stands to be the biggest yet in the shifting tides of conference realignment.

Texas and Oklahoma's respective Boards of Regents will be meeting to empower their presidents to make a deal with whatever conference they deem appropriate. The current speculation is that both are headed to the Pac-12, but hurdles - perhaps significant - remain, chief among them the Longhorn Network and Texas' willingness to shrink it to Pac-12 rules. Another hurdle is whether conference presidents are willing to admit schools with supposedly secondary academic status, although it would seem commissioner Larry Scott should be able to overcome them.

The Pac-12 is showing no signs of budging on its network rules, with the WilmerReport suggesting that Missouri could be on the conference's radar should Texas not come to terms. That would implicitly imperil Tech's move as well.

The SEC is reported quietly looking to jump to 16 teams, reportedly likely to accept West Virginia's upcoming application. The ACC apparently also believes that they are also about to lose Florida State to the SEC as well, meaning a currently unknown 16th team is likely brewing in the SEC's radar.

Acrimony in the Big East came to a head with the sudden departure of Syracuse and Pitt, and now suggestions are that the conference may not survive. Remants of the Big 12 and the Big East may merge to form a new regional conference.

This week should prove to be most interesting. Stay tuned.

Report: ACC off the table for Texas?

Chip Brown reports on Orangebloods.com that the ACC option for Texas may be "decreasing," and that the conference may have "moved on without Texas." Brown also reports that the best remaining option for Texas will be to join the Pac 12. Texas was supposedly caught completely off-guard by the Syracuse-Pitt move to the ACC, and how that has played in this "end-game" is unclear.

Analysis: Rumors spun earlier today that suggested Texas was told by the ACC they wanted two teams from Texas, but when Texas Tech was asked by UT to join the ACC, Texas Tech declined. When Baylor was proposed as an alternate, the ACC declined. Shortly after this negotiation broke down, supposedly, the Syracuse/Pitt move happened with startling speed.

There are huge ramifications if this report holds true. Reports held that short of remaining in the Big 12, the ACC was Texas' last, best hope for retaining the Longhorn Network in its current form. If the door to the ACC has closed, and the Longhorns are unwilling to go independent (as they've repeatedly stated), it looks very much like the stage would be set for Texas and Texas Tech to follow the Sooners and the OSU Cowboys to the Pac 12+

Obviously, all of this is very fluid, and at times Orangebloods.com has been a bit dicey in credibility, but the fact that this current report matches earlier rumors gives this curernt info a bit more credibility.

More as it develops!

Realignment Summary

As of 6:30 AM Wednesday morning, here's where we are:

* SEC voted to extend membership invitation to A&M, with two diesents

* SEC would pursue Missouri or West Virginia as 14th member

* New rumor are suggesting SEC's offer is contingent upon a waiver of lawsuit from Big 12, but this is unconfirmed and reported only from Orangebloods.com

* Most sources continue to believe notion of Texas joining ACC as not credible, being used as leverage to discourage Oklahoma from busting the Big 12 and ending the OU-Texas rivalry

 * A&M is expected to announce their acceptance of the SEC invitation today. If the lawsuit waiver issue is true, that could be delayed

Thoughts: If the Big 12 had designs to sue the SEC, why would they agree to a mutual waiver of claims in allowing Texas A&M to depart in the first place? That is, if there's tortious interferene on one side, there's a willful breach of contract on the other - but the Big 12 released those claims, did they not? Besides, if the Big 12 dissolves, what entity would engage in the lawsuit? A threat from individual schools, such as Baylor, would be more credible, but one would assume a waiver of claims by the conference would presumably extend to each of its members individually and possibly survive the conference itself.

With the Big East courting (at least) Big 12 refugees Kansas and Kansas State, it would seem the Big 12 is destined to dissolve. With multiple sources - notably OKC and Houston broadcast and print media - reporting that the Longhorn Network would be converted into something amenable to the Pac 12, it still seems that the smart money is on OU, OkState, Texas, and Texas Tech heading to the Pac 12.

Stay tuned.