Football Saturday!!! Three games to watch

With realignment talk finally on the back burner for good (well, at least for now), let's look at three big matchups for today!

* Oklahoma State at Texas A&M


The Cowboys hit the road for a top-ten tilt that will give the winner a clear shot to challenge Oklahoma for the Big 12 conference title. Brandon Weeden has led the Cowboys to three straight lopsided wins over outmatched opponents, but has been inconsistent with a league-leading six interceptions thus far. Ryan Tannehill is still looking to quiet the doubters, sporting higher effeciency rating than Weeden (164.8/157.5) and only one interception.

The biggest question for both teams is arguably defense. Oklahoma State surrendered a jaw-dropping 365 yards rushing to Tulsa in their late night marathon a week ago, but most of those yards came with OSU playing out the string with a huge lead and Tulsa playing without their starting quarterback. A&M has played virtually no competition of much note, so how they will fare against Oklahoma State's high-powered passing attack remains to be seen.

It sez here that OSU on the road against one of the toughest home environments in college football will be just a bit too much for the Pokes to overcome. With A&M on its Big 12 Farewell tour, look for Texas A&M to post a wild 42-38 win over OSU this afternoon.

* Arkansas - Alabama 


The Crimson Tide may have one of the the best defenses in the country, teamed up with one of the best pair of running backs in the country. So what's a Razorback fan to do? Still, Bama hasn't exactly blown out its first three opponents, but has never been seriously challenged, either. Arkansas did blow out its first two opponents, but found itself in a bit of a battle against Troy before prevailing 38-28. Neither team has enjoyed success in winning the turnover battle (Bama at -3, Arkansas at -4), and Bama's special teams - particularly in the FG department - has been less than special.

One interesting difference is offensive efficiency. While both offenses have been productive inside the redzone,  Arkansas has been better at converting those trips into touchdowns, while 'Bama has been settling for field goals. The Razorbacks have converted 100% of its 13 trips into points, settling for field goals only three times. By contrast, Alabama has converted only eight into touchdowns. That highlights the potential risk for Bama should the game come down to  one of trading TD's for field goals.

It sez here that, honestly, though, FG's and redzones won't matter. Playing at home, Alabama will use its defense to upend a solid but largely untested Arkansas offense, and secure a 27-14 win over the Razorbacks


* Oklahoma - Missouri


Last year, the Sooners went to Columbia as the #1 team in the country, but a mistake-prone Sooner offense stumbled its way to a 36-27 loss at the hands of Blaine Gabbert and the Missouri Tigers. This year, the Tigers visit Norman with a young, inconsistent quarterback, a nearly-as-young team, and a Sooner squad fresh off a national TV road win against then-#5 Florida State.

It seems too easy, doesn't it?

It seems impossible to think Oklahoma could enter its contest tonight with the same emotional intensity it showed against Florida State, and that gives Missouri an early-game opportunity to make things interesting. If Oklahoma's defensive tendency to play guts-and-blood defense 90% of the time while allowing an inexplicable big play the other 10%, Missouri has the offense to take advantage. The key: A great early start for Missouri quarterback James Franklin.

If the Oklahoma offense comes out and establishes tempo, Missouri will be in trouble. Combine that with Oklahoma's defense that held Florida State to 27 yards rushing a week ago, and Missouri had better pounce on any early game opportunities - or it could be a long day for the Tigers.

It sez here Oklahoma may have a sluggish early-game start, but the friendly confines of Oklahoma Memorial Stadium combined with a revenge mindset gives the Sooners every chance for a lopsided win. Look for Oklahoma to come away with a 41-20 win.

Thursday Realignment Saga Update

There's not a great deal of new news to report on the realignment front, but there are a few pieces worth mentioning:

1. Oklahoma State issued a tersely worded release saying that anonymous reports mentioning OSU as part of some legal action against SEC and A&M were false.

2. Per tweets from a couple of different sources, OU will NOT recommit to the Big 12. Reports from some message boards rumoring that OU had decided to stay in the Big 12 are false.

3. Rumors circulating that there had been a "conspiracy" uncovered among Texas and the Big 12 are false.

4. Baylor is apparently very interested in overtures from the Big East, and an invitation from a BCS AQ conference may go a long way to pacifying their current refusal to sign a lawsuit waiver.

5. BYU has reportedly expressed interest in joining the Big 12 if Oklahoma stays. This is in direct contradiction to reports I trust that said the BYU flatly turned down the Big 12 before Oklahoma's conference exploration went public.

6. Oklahoma officials are, to be kind, not at all happy with what appears to have been a fabricated (?) report, possibly (allegedly?) initiated/planted by Baylor, implying OU could save the Big 12 by staying

Analysis: Not a great deal to analyze, except a bit of speculation Texas may have no choice but to go independent by 2012. Baylor is fishing for a soft-landingn in an AQ conference, and I somehow suspect an invite from the Big East would end their huffy holdout over A&M, and ISU would have no teeth to perpetuate the battle. Oklahoma's apparent option not to reaffirm commitment to Big 12 is important, meaning it is not going to be intimidated by reports (true or otherwise) about their relative ability to "save" conference. Beyond that, I seriously doubt OU will make any kind of announcement prior to next week, because of pending serivces for the late Lee Roy Selmon pending in Tampa and Oklahoma City over the next few days.

Ultimately, we're not much farther than we were the other day. All we can do is watch and wait.

Updates as they make sense.


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