Realignment Clearing Up - Finally!

Update: 9:19 PM 9/18/11 Just when you thought things were clearing up, someone comes along and puts on the brakes.


And it looks like the foot attached to those brakes is wearing Burnt Orange.


Late word from multiple sources not originating in Austin indicates that the supposedly "done deal" is not, in fact, done.  And guess the major sticking point: The Longhorn Network. Supposedly, the Longhorns' first stab at reorganizing the network to meet the Pac 12's branding, content, and rights demands may not be sufficient. Texas is holding on until its dying breath to as much of the LHN as it can, and one report suggested their initial offering should be seen as only an opening bargaining position. 


Pete Thamel of the New York Times suggests there is still unresolved reticence among Pac 12 presidents about the apparently pending addition of OU, Ok State, Texas, and Tech to their lineup, and for varied reasons. Those issues combine with the Texas' decision to go down with a fight likely keeps the movement west in low gear for at least a big longer. 


Analysis: The reality for Texas is that is no longer bargains from a position of strength. With ACC talks having collapsed quite spectacularly (assuming those talks were ever as mature as some Texas sources indicated), the Longhorns have no other conference options assuming Oklahoma and Oklahoma State make good on their intent to leave - and every report indicates that focus is unchanged. This means that the Pac 12 has considerable leverage to force Texas to mold LHN to its liking, or leave them with the prospect of going independent. 


The conventional wisdom earlier today was that the Move of Four was possible to happen as early as tomorrow, with regents from UT and OU to meet and discuss alignment issues. That now seems unlikely. Ultimately, I believe the four will make the move to the Pac 12, if for no other reason than to avoid being left in the cold while everyone else ramps up around them. The only variable now is time.



For the first time since the initial shot fired late this past summer by Texas A&M, it finally appears that at least a degree of clarity is emerging in conference realignment.

Syracuse and Pitt surprised everyone by being the first to actually make a complete conference move, bolting a reportedly very annoyed Big East and landing in the suddenly more-important ACC. That's a done deal. The rest is still pending, but here's a rundown.

After hot last-minute speculation arose that Texas was going to preserve its Longhorn Network by joining the ACC, reports emerged that the deal Texas pushed was ultimately rejected. The package deal of Texas and Texas Tech was unacceptable due to Tech's academic standing, per one report, and the ACC would not accept Texas individually. When what appeared to be the final remaining option to preserve the LHN disappeared, Texas was faced with the choice of independence or following Oklahoma to the Pac 12, and chose the latter.

This means that the reported combination of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech going to the Pac 12 is likely to become reality as soon as this week. As previously posted here, regents' meetings for both Oklahoma and Texas are indepenently scheduled for Monday, and each has conference alignment and empowerment items on their agendas. Although every indication is that Oklahoma has successfully checkmated Texas into a decision forcing it to abandon (or substantially rework) its nascent $300 million Longhorn Network into something acceptable in the eyes of the Pac 12, it appears that Oklahoma wants to foster the appearance of unity with Texas in realignment. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a joint teleconference announcing the move once the independent regents have acted.

Even without a public search for a 14th team, the SEC is likely to land one with the rumored application of West Virginia. The Big East, now absent two members, is likely to offer membership to two or more of the defunct Big 12's leftovers, implying some combination of Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor. Less clear is the future of TCU, destined to become a Big East member next season, but with their AD casting doubt on the league's uncertain future following Syracuse and Pitt's unexpected departure.

There remains at least the possibility that a "reformed" Big 12 could emerge with the crumbs of the former conference, moving forward with teams such as Cincinnati, Louisville, Houston, or perhaps BYU. Either way, it seems that either the Big 12 or the Big East survives in some form, but not both. A merger of the two leagues isn't at all out of the question, either.

The first clear non-football result from the shuffling is that the ACC could emerge as the power basketball conference with its two new additions, and the possibility that Kansas could join the ranks not out of the question.

The road to realignment has been a bumpy one, and even now these seemingly clearer paths aren't set in stone. It seems clear that the formal result won't be known until Oklahoma and Texas formalize their intentions sometime tomorrow.